White paper: Cisco VNI Forecast and Methodology, 2. June 6, 2. 01. 6This forecast is part of the Cisco. This document presents the details of the Cisco VNI global IP traffic forecast and the methodology behind it. For a more analytical look at the implications of the data presented in this paper, refer to the companion document, The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis, or the VNI Forecast Highlights tool. Executive Summary. Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte (ZB; 1.
Global IP traffic will reach 1. ZB per year or 8. EB (one billion gigabytes .
By 2. 02. 0, global IP traffic will reach 2. ZB per year, or 1. EB per month. Global IP traffic will increase nearly threefold over the next 5 years, and will have increased nearly 1. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2. Busy- hour Internet traffic is growing more rapidly than average Internet traffic. Busy- hour (or the busiest 6. Busy- hour Internet traffic will increase by a factor of 4.
Internet traffic will increase twofold. Smartphone traffic will exceed PC traffic by 2. In 2. 01. 5, PCs accounted for 5. IP traffic, but by 2. PCs will account for only 2. Smartphones will account for 3. IP traffic in 2. 02.
PC- originated traffic will grow at a CAGR of 8 percent, while TVs, tablets, smartphones, and machine- to- machine (M2. M) modules will have traffic growth rates of 1. Traffic from wireless and mobile devices will account for two- thirds of total IP traffic by 2. By 2. 02. 0, wired devices will account for 3.
IP traffic, while Wi- Fi and mobile devices will account for 6. IP traffic. In 2.
IP traffic at 5. 2 percent. Global Internet traffic in 2. Internet in 2. 00.
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Globally, Internet traffic will reach 2. GB per capita by 2. GB per capita in 2. The number of devices connected to IP networks will be three times as high as the global population in 2. There will be 3. 4 networked devices per capita by 2. Accelerated in part by the increase in devices and the capabilities of those devices, IP traffic per capita will reach 2. GB per capita by 2.
GB per capita in 2. Broadband speeds will nearly double by 2. By 2. 02. 0, global fixed broadband speeds will reach 4.
Mbps, up from 2. 4. Mbps in 2. 01. 5. Video Highlights. It would take an individual more than 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2. Every second, nearly a million minutes of video content will cross the network by 2.
Globally, IP video traffic will be 8. Internet traffic by 2. Global IP video traffic will grow threefold from 2. CAGR of 2. 6 percent. Internet video traffic will grow fourfold from 2. CAGR of 3. 1 percent.
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Internet video surveillance traffic nearly doubled in 2. PB) per month at the end of 2. PB per month in 2. Internet video surveillance traffic will increase tenfold between 2.
Globally, 3. 9 percent of all Internet video traffic will be due to video surveillance in 2. Virtual reality traffic quadrupled in 2. PB per month in 2.
PB per month in 2. Globally, virtual reality traffic will increase 6. CAGR of 1. 27 percent. Internet video to TV grew 5. Internet video to TV will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 3.
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Internet video- to- TV traffic will be 2. Internet video traffic by 2. Consumer Vo. D traffic will nearly double by 2. Ultra- high- definition (UHD) will be 2.
IP video- on- demand (Vo. D) traffic in 2. 02. Content delivery network (CDN) traffic will carry nearly two- thirds of all internet video traffic by 2. By 2. 02. 0, 6. 4 percent of all Internet video traffic will cross CDNs, up from 4. Mobile Highlights. Globally, mobile data traffic will increase eightfold between 2.
Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 5. EB per month by 2. Global mobile data traffic will grow three times as fast as fixed IP traffic from 2. Global mobile data traffic was 5 percent of total IP traffic in 2. IP traffic by 2. 02.
Regional Highlights. IP traffic is growing fastest in the Middle East and Africa, followed by Asia Pacific. Traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 4. IP traffic in North America will reach 5.
EB per month by 2. CAGR of 1. 9 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in North America will generate 1. DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 4.
EB per month. IP traffic in Western Europe will reach 2. EB per month by 2.
CAGR of 2. 0 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Western Europe will generate 6 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 2. EB per month. IP traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 6. EB per month by 2. CAGR of 2. 2 percent.
Monthly Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will generate 1. DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 5. EB per month. IP traffic in Latin America will reach 1. EB per month by 2. CAGR of 2. 1 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in Latin America will generate 2 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 9.
EB per month. IP traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 1. EB per month by 2. CAGR of 2. 7 percent.
Monthly Internet traffic in Central and Eastern Europe will generate 4 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 1. EB per month. IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will reach 1. EB per month by 2. CAGR of 2. 7 percent. Monthly Internet traffic in the Middle East and Africa will generate 3 billion DVDs’ worth of traffic, or 1.
EB per month. Global Business Highlights. Business IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 1. Increased adoption of advanced video communications in the enterprise segment will cause business IP traffic to grow by a factor of 2 between 2. Business Internet traffic will grow at a faster pace than IP WAN. IP WAN will grow at a CAGR of 6 percent, compared with a CAGR of 2.
Internet and 4. 7 percent for mobile business Internet. Business IP traffic will grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa.
Business IP traffic in the Middle East and Africa will grow at a CAGR of 2. In volume, Asia Pacific will have the largest amount of business IP traffic in 2. EB per month. North America will be the second at 9. EB per month. Overview of VNI Methodology. The Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast methodology has been developed based on a combination of analyst projections, in- house estimates and forecasts, and direct data collection.
The analyst projections for broadband connections, video subscribers, mobile connections, and Internet application adoption come from SNL Kagan, Ovum, Informa Telecoms & Media, Infonetics, IDC, Gartner, AMI, Verto Analytics, Ookla Speedtest. Strategy Analytics, Screen Digest, Dell’Oro Group, Synergy, com. Score, Nielsen, Maravedis, Machina Research, ACG Research, ABI Research, Media Partners Asia, IHS, International Telecommunications Union (ITU), CTIA, UN, telecommunications regulators, and others.
Upon this foundation are layered Cisco’s own estimates for application adoption, minutes of use, and kilobytes per minute. The adoption, usage, and bit- rate assumptions are tied to fundamental enablers such as broadband speed and computing speed. All usage and traffic results are then validated using data shared with Cisco from service providers. Figure 1 shows the forecast methodology. Figure 1. Even such a basic measure as consumer fixed Internet users can be difficult to assess, because few analyst firms segment the number of users by both segment (consumer versus business) and network (mobile versus fixed). The number of consumer fixed Internet users was not taken directly from an analyst source but was estimated from analyst forecasts for consumer broadband connections, data on hotspot users from a variety of government sources, and population forecasts by age segment.
The number of Internet video users was collected and estimated from a variety of sources, and the numbers were then reconciled with the estimate of overall Internet users. Step 2: Application Adoption. After the number of Internet video users has been established, the number of users for each video subsegment must be estimated. It was assumed that all Internet video users view short- form video in addition to other forms of video they may watch. The number of Internet video users who watch long- form video (based partially on com. Score Video Metrix figures for video sites whose average viewing time is longer than 5 minutes), live video, ambient video, and Internet personal video recorder (PVR) is estimated.
Step 3. Minutes of Use. For each application subsegment, minutes of use (MOU) are estimated. Multiple sources are used to determine MOU: the Cisco Data Meter data collection program provides a minute- per- subscriber baseline for many applications, the Cisco Connected Life Market Watch survey provides MOU for markets that are not covered by the Usage program, and com.
Score Video Metrix provides PC- and mobile- based MOU for online video. Special care is taken to help ensure that the total number of Internet video minutes is well within the total number of video minutes (including television broadcast) for each user.
For example, if the average individual watches a total of 4 hours of video content per day, the sum of Internet, managed IP, and mobile video hours should be a relatively small portion of the total 4 hours. Step 4. Bit Rates. After MOU have been estimated for each subsegment of video, the next step is to apply kilobytes (KB) per minute. To calculate KB per minute, first the regional and country average broadband speeds are estimated for the years 2. For each application category, a representative bit rate is established, and this representative bit rate grows at approximately the same pace as the broadband speed. For video categories, a 7. Local bit rates are then calculated based on how much the average broadband speed in the country differs from the global average, digital screen size in the country, and the computing power of the average device in the country.
Combining these factors yields bit rates that are then applied to the MOU. Step 5: Rollup. The next step in the methodology is to multiply the bit rates, MOU, and users together to get average PB per month. Step 6: Traffic Migration Assessment.